How Behavio predicts ad effectiveness using behavioral science

Conscious-driven pre-testing is worse than nothing

In the past, traditional pre-testing methods relied on a rational persuasion model that measured how much an ad affected the purchase intent metric–simply, asking respondents if they were more likely to buy the product after seeing the ad.

The problem? What people say and what they do are often worlds apart.

Ads that scored highest in lifting purchase intent were usually packed with exciting news, giving respondents a reason to justify their declared intention to buy. 

However, these information-heavy, constantly changing ads were also the ones people forgot shortly after—or worse, didn’t even notice in the first place. In the real world, attention isn’t guaranteed as it was in legacy pre-testing.

As a result, this outdated method led to a flood of ads with little impact on consumers’ long-term buying behavior. As marketing rockstar Mark Ritson put it, “The pre-testing of old was one step from pointless.”

Research eventually revealed that this legacy pre-testing model actually had a negative correlation with large market share growth—yikes!

Things started to change in 2009 when System1 introduced the first emotional, rather than rational, pre-testing. As this approach became more widespread, pre-testing began to predict the actual business impact of ads. 

Behavio takes this a step further by moving beyond just emotions to focus on even more predictive subconscious memory changes.

A behavioral approach to ad testing

The behavioral approach to ad testing is based on the principle that 95% of buying decisions are subconscious, driven by intrinsic factors like emotion and memory.

The reality is that people rarely pay close attention to ads. Effective ad campaigns are less about persuading people to buy your product and more about building and refreshing long-term memory structures.

At Behavio, we use behavioral methods that predict both brand and business growth by mapping changes in subconscious memory connections. Unlike legacy pre-testing, our approach can accurately predict long-term buying behavior.

Based on our methodology, the key to an effective ad is creating subconscious memory links between relevant consumer occasions and the brand, and using emotion to amplify these connections. 

The ”task, don’t ask” approach

Our approach is rooted in the idea that people often struggle to identify their true motivators or predict their own behavior.

That’s why, instead of simply asking how they feel about an ad, we rely on advanced behavioral techniques to uncover their subconscious motivations and emotions.

To ensure our findings are both reliable and insightful, we test each ad with a large, diverse group of 500 participants, carefully selected to reflect different ages, education levels, genders, and regions.

We also use A/B testing to dig deeper—showing different moments of the ad to separate groups so we can measure how performance shifts throughout the ad. This way, we get a clear picture of what truly works.

3 keys to an effective ad: need, brand, & emotion

Before we go into depth about how Behavio measures each of these three components, let’s first look at how they work together to influence a purchasing decision.

When we encounter an occasion where we feel a need—like hunger—a network of neurons in our brain activates.

If a strong brand is associated with that need, its memory network is triggered too. This is called brand salience, and it correlates with market share since we often choose the first brand that comes to mind.

The connection between a need and a brand isn’t automatic. To strengthen it, ads need to link benefits (e.g., “easy” or “affordable”) to the brand using distinctive symbols that make it stand out.

For example, if you’ve seen a Happy Meal ad, you’re more likely to think of McDonald’s when going out to eat with your kids.

These connections form through the rule of neuroscience: neurons that fire together, wire together. Repeatedly pairing a need and a brand builds lasting associations, much like learning a language.

Emotion is key to making these connections stronger. It grabs attention and helps us remember, as emotional moments are more deeply ingrained in memory. It’s important to note that without brand reminders or a clear need connection, emotion alone won’t drive sales.

So to sum it up, there are 3 essential elements to creating an effective ad:

1. Remind viewers of the brand.

2. Link the brand to a specific need.

3. Amplify with strong emotion.

But how can you determine if your ad is hitting the mark in these three areas? 

That’s where we come in!

Need

Customer need is a key driver in any campaign. Consumers choose your brand when they have an unmet need—whether it’s wanting a quick lunch, needing new shoes, or craving something sweet.

For an ad to be effective, the audience must recognize the need (category) it addresses. This recognition is the entry point for customers to engage with your brand.

To build brand salience, your brand must nurture a strong association with the category itself. This is especially important for smaller brands with lower awareness. If your brand isn’t strongly linked to the category, it will struggle to stand out from the crowd.

Next, the campaign should communicate specific message aligned with your goals and reinforce what you want customers to associate with your brand. An effective message grabs attention, resonates emotionally, and sticks with your audience long after they’ve seen it. 

How do we measure ‘Need’?

We focus on category recall and category fit as the primary metrics to measure the connection between the ad and customer need.

Additional metrics like message recall and brand links provide further insights into how well the ad communicates the customer's need. 

Category Recall (used in impact and video pre-tests)

We measure category recall at two key moments—after participants watch a randomly selected 5-second clip from the ad and again after viewing the full ad.

At each stage, participants are asked, “What do you associate with the ad?” They are shown a list of associations, including the product category or buying situation.

After testing, we measure the percentage of respondents who associate the ad with the correct product category or buying situation and compare this to established benchmarks. Results also include a detailed category recall curve that demonstrates how recall fluctuates throughout the ad.

Message Recall

As with category recall, message recall is measured twice—after participants watch a randomly selected 5-second clip and again after viewing the full ad.

Participants are asked, “What do you associate with the ad?” and are presented with a list of randomized associations, including your key messages.

During testing, we calculate the percentage of respondents who recall the intended product category or key message, both during specific segments of the ad (as shown by the recall curve) and overall. These metrics are compared to industry benchmarks to evaluate ad effectiveness.

Brand Links

To measure brand links, we show participants your brand alongside competitors and ask them to match the associations you’ve pre-defined—like “affordable” or “high-quality ingredients”—to the brand they think fits best.

Using a simple drag-and-drop task, participants assign each association to a brand. The results are then displayed in a table, showing the percentage of participants who linked each association to your brand versus your competitors. Because the total for each association adds up to 100%, it’s easy to see how your brand stacks up in the eyes of your audience.

Brand

A majority of ads worldwide fall flat because people can’t recall the brand. Branding is more than just a logo—it includes elements like color, mascots, tone of voice, jingles, shape, packaging—anything that immediately connects to your brand. 

The key is to develop and consistently display these distinctive brand assets alongside your customers’ needs or situations. Repetition strengthens these mental connections (brand salience), making your brand top of mind when relevant shopping situations arise.

How do we measure ‘Brand’?

We measure branding through brand recall in impact and video pre-tests, and brand fit in concept tests.

Brand Recall

In impact and video pre-tests, respondents watch a 5-second randomly selected clip from the ad. Afterward, they are asked an open-ended question: “Do you know what brand this ad is for?”

Respondents provide their own answers without being prompted. If they don’t know, they can skip. 

We then code the responses, count the occurrences of your brand, and calculate the percentage of respondents who recall the brand. We compare this result to benchmarks.

In concept tests, after viewing the concept, respondents answer a few follow-up questions (e.g., emotional reaction). Then, they’re asked an open-ended question: “Do you recall the brand this concept promotes?”

Responses are coded, and we calculate the percentage of respondents who recall your brand, comparing the result to benchmarks.

Emotion

Emotion is a powerful amplifier in advertising. Its primary role is to capture attention, making the ad stand out, be noticed, and be remembered. 

However, emotion is most effective when it works in harmony with the other two components—Need and Brand. Without these, there is nothing for emotion to amplify, and the ad loses its impact.

How do we measure ‘Emotion’?

We measure emotional response by first showing participants the full ad (either a video or an image). As they watch, they select one of two emoticons—positive or negative—to reflect their emotions at specific moments. This enables us to track fluctuations in emotional responses throughout the ad.

This method allows us to create emotional response curves that illustrate positive and negative emotional shifts as the ad progresses–giving us valuable insights into which parts of the ad resonate most emotionally.

At the end of the ad, participants rate their overall emotional reaction using emoticons representing love, smile, neutral, boring, or anger. The key metric is the percentage of respondents who select the “love” or “smile” emoticons, which we use to gauge total positive emotion. 

To gain deeper insight into emotional reactions, we also gather qualitative feedback from respondents through comments that accompany their emoticon selection.

To dive deeper into the emotional impact of the ad, we replay one particular scene and ask participants to describe what stood out to them in an open-ended format. Their responses are visualized as a word cloud, aligned with the emotional curve, highlighting moments that triggered the most positive reactions.

Final thoughts

Traditional pre-testing methods that focused on rational persuasion and short-term sales failed to account for the subconscious factors that truly drive consumer behavior, and therefore could not accurately predict long-term success. 

At Behavio, we’ve shifted the focus to a more modern approach, one that taps into subconscious connections and emotional engagement to provide a more accurate reflection of how ads influence our buying decisions. 

By measuring the key elements of need, brand, and emotion, we help brands create ads that not only capture attention but also build lasting connections that lead to sustained growth.

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